The Department of Economics Brown Bag Research Workshop series provides an opportunity for faculty to present early-stage research projects to collect feedback from colleagues.

Faculty Presenter: Carl Gustafson, Lecturer in Economics

Title: Welfare Reform and Partisan Realignment

Abstract: At critical moments in American political history, members of certain voting blocs have reconsidered their partisan loyalties and “switched sides,” usually after major economic shocks or policy changes.  In this paper, we argue that welfare reform in 1996 constituted one such moment.  We posit that Democratic economic moderation drove voters to prioritize their preferences over sociocultural policy, a dimension on which there was still sufficient separation between the parties, in determining with whom to affiliate.  Rich, urban cosmopolitans became Democrats; poor, rural populists became Republicans.  We investigate these claims empirically, using a series of difference-in-differences and event study models.  Even after controlling for a host of other covariates which might shape realignment, we find consistent evidence that the share of welfare-eligible women in counties and congressional districts predicts sharp swings in vote share toward the Republican party after 1996.  These effects are driven by places where sociocultural conservatism is prevalent.  We conclude by aggregating predicted swings in vote share to the state level and show that welfare reform had its greatest political impact along the coasts and in the Upper South.

Location: Seminar Room, BB 4.02.02

Contact hayri.arslan@utsa.edu to RSVP for the Economics Brown Bag Research Workshop series.